Your TSP Balance Is Not the Plan.
Published on: 01/08/2026
A large TSP balance feels good. It is visible. It is measurable. It gives you a number to point to. But that number alone does not tell you whether retirement works.

A large TSP balance feels good. It is visible. It is measurable. It gives you a number to point to. But that number alone does not tell you whether retirement works.

Two things happened this week that every federal employee nearing retirement should pay attention to. First, a wave of articles about FERS early retirement reminded us that eligibility is not the same as readiness.

Average FERS wait times drag to 76 days while OPM executes structural policy shifts and drafts more aggressive RIF guidelines.

Year-to-date gains look healthy on paper but volatility, elevated valuations, and sequence of return risk create a dangerous environment for federal employees within 3 years of retirement.